On August 26th, while most of the market held its breath waiting for direction, HYPE was busy doing something remarkable. The token climbed from $51 to a fresh all-time high of $83, settling near $81 as the rest of the crypto landscape limped through what most analysts still classify as a bear market. In the chaos of consensus, I seek the quiet truth—and this dissonance between HYPE's trajectory and the broader market's stagnation is exactly the kind of contradiction that demands a closer look.
Veteran trader Lu Yao has a name for this: an "independent bull market." His thesis is simple yet divisive. The overall crypto market remains in the latter half of a bear cycle, which he describes with the evocative Chinese term "猴市"—a market that jumps up and down like a monkey, directionless and erratic. But within that chaos, HYPE is running its own race. This is not a contradiction; it is a structure.
The Context: A Market in the "Monkey Phase"
To understand why a trader of Lu's caliber would claim that HYPE is in a bull market while simultaneously warning that the bear is not over, one must understand what a "猴市" actually means. It is not the same as a sideways market. It is a market defined by violent, short-term volatility that punishes both stubborn bulls and committed bears. It is a market where the fundamentals matter less than the speed of money.
This phase typically emerges in the late stages of a bear market, when the easy money has left and only the most liquid assets—often Bitcoin—retain enough momentum to stage relief rallies. But the "monkey" metaphor is also a warning: the market can jump in either direction with little notice.
Lu Yao's framing of HYPE as being in an "independent bull cycle" is a crucial insight. It suggests that the market is no longer moving in tandem. Bitcoin is the macro bellwether, but certain assets have broken away from its gravitational pull. HYPE, the native token of the Hyperliquid protocol, appears to have achieved this. The question is why.
The Core: A Market Divided Against Itself
Let me be direct: Lu Yao is not predicting a Bitcoin supercycle. He is suggesting Bitcoin will likely find its way into the $90,000–$100,000 range in the near term. That is not an overly aggressive target; it implies a relief rally from current levels, not a return to euphoria.
The critical nuance lies in his warning that the bear market cycle is not over. This means any rise in Bitcoin is to be viewed as a technical rebound, not a fundamental shift in market structure. He anticipates significant volatility ahead—the "monkey jumps" of the 猴市. This is the voice of a trader who has survived cycles, not a cheerleader for permanent bulls.
His operational guidance is where the philosophy of this market becomes practical. He urges investors to avoid going either all-in or all-out. In a market where the monkey can jump in any direction, the appropriate strategy is to maintain a medium position. This is not indecision; it is probabilistic thinking. It is an admission that the downside risk is not fully priced out, and the upside potential is not yet fully priced in.
This approach is the epitome of what I call "structured humility." It does not chase the grand narrative of a new bull market, nor does it capitulate to the despair of a long winter. It simply allows one to remain in the game.
The Contrarian Angle: The Sustainability of "Independent Bulls"
This is where I diverge from the headline of "HYPE in an independent bull." Lu Yao's point about an "independent market" is a fair observation, but it is a fragile one. Historically, in a bear market, assets that demonstrate independent strength are either leading indicators of a market bottom or, more often, the last liquidity in the game before a final flush.
The HYPE narrative is currently sustained by momentum and the perception of a differentiated value proposition within the Hyperliquid ecosystem. But what happens if Bitcoin reaches $100,000 and then hits a hard wall? The "independent" asset will inevitably be tested for correlation. The market will ask: Is HYPE's story strong enough to withstand a Bitcoin correction?
Furthermore, the term "independent" is often a trap. In the deep, interlinked web of crypto markets, independence is an illusion. When liquidity pulls back, it pulls back from all assets, regardless of their inherent strength. The "independent bull" in a bear market is often the first to be sold when the need for liquidity becomes urgent.
The risk is not that Lu's analysis is wrong; it is that the timeline is unpredictable. A "monkey" market can jump for months. But when it jumps down, it does not check to see if HYPE has finished its run.
The Takeaway: The Wisdom of Medium Position
The market is not a single entity; it is a composite of diverging structures. The macro bear has not yet admitted defeat, but micro bull has begun to assert itself. HYPE has provided a model for how to trade this—not with certainty, but with balance.
The most valuable insight from Lu Yao is not the specific price target for Bitcoin, but the recognition that the market is divided. In such a structure, the position is the strategy. A medium position is not a sign of fear; it is a discipline of readiness. It respects the chaos of the consensus and keeps the flame of the covenant alive.
Ownership is not a receipt; it is a soul. And in this market, holding a position—without the soul of the market being fully committed—is a way of preserving the soul while waiting for the moment of clarity.
